Bad Friday for the Dollar

Well, we can’t blame the weather this time; March U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls came in significantly lower this morning at +126K vs. consensus estimates of +244K likely quashing any likelihood of a June Fed tightening and prompting USD bulls to run for the exits, taking profit on their long positons.  In a week of mixed data, market players had already begun to thin their long dollar positons ahead of the long Easter weekend and ahead of NFP which represented considerable event risk.

Mixed Bag of Data

While the US Federal Reserve did remove the word ‘patient’ from its statement last Wednesday, it is not likely to remove the word ‘cautious’ from their approach to interest rates going forward. After a great deal of FX volatility after the Fed’s dovish outlook at the Federal Open Market Committee meeting last week, traders have been watching closely each economic data release this week for clues to the timing of the Fed’s next move – and the results have been a mixed bag of good, not so good, and ‘as anticipated’.

Managing FED Expectations

As expected, the US Federal Reserve, in their monthly policy meeting on March 18, removed the term "patient" from their forward guidance leading to increased speculation of an impending interest rate increase.  This potential rate move will of course depend, and place an ever-focused magnifying glass, on forthcoming economic data specifically employment and inflation.

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